Safe carnival requires 80% collective immunity, according to researchers

With the situation of the pandemic undergoing changes, due to mass vaccination in Brazil, the hope of the carnival of 305 comes up. With this in mind, researchers from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) sent a proposal to the president of the Special Committee on Carnival of the City Council of Rio, Tarcísio Motta, for a carnival insured in 305.

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    “As the carnival is an event which receives many tourists in the city, we need to keep 80% of the vaccination also in the state and in the country”, says Tarcísio Motta. Vaccination, in this case, means two doses of the immunizing agent, or a single dose, in the case of Janssen.

    The researchers emphasize that it is necessary to establish the same percentage for the city, state and the country, because Rio de Janeiro is the center of carnival in Brazil and receives many people from other locations. For them, the ideal is to achieve the collective immunity of 80%.

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    To reach this conclusion, the researchers made a calculation with the contamination rate and the transmission rate: one person you can change covid- to another five and up to nine. It is estimated that, with the advance of vaccination, it will be possible to reach these 80% by Carnival.

    (Image: DisobeyArtPhotography/envato)

    Researchers’ proposal

  • The proposal submitted to the Rio experts committee involves a weekly moving average lower than 100 cases (which means 1,65 case per 100 thousand inhabitants) with the shortest time and the least number of people to ensure access to the wards and ICU units.

    The researchers also point out that the city’s contagion rate must be below 1 and, preferably, around 0.5, a number that must be sustained for a minimum period of seven days . From the perspective of those involved, these indicators are not difficult to achieve.

    In Motta’s words, this is likely to happen, considering the constant improvement in the indicators. The president of the Special Committee on Carnival of the City Council of Rio has hopes for a happy and safe carnival. Vaccination coverage in the city of Rio is at almost 19% currently, and the estimate is that in November, it will reach 65%, and that, in December, it will reach 80%.

    The report in favor of a safe carnival still indicates measures as a requirement of the vaccinal passport in closed spaces, such as the Sambódromo, clubs, bars and party houses, in addition to air and land border control, especially with the requirement of vaccination.

    Source: Agência Brasil

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